Odds are, Ford CEO Jim Farley and Basic Motors CEO Mary Barra have both already voted within the election or will on Tuesday. Fortunately, although, we’ve completely no concept who which candidate they really help. Your guess is about nearly as good as mine. Tesla CEO Elon Musk, however, has made it abundantly clear that he’s all-in for Trump. And he doesn’t simply need Trump to win — he’s spending tens of millions and actively campaigning on his behalf. If Trump wins, Musk and his corporations will completely profit, however what occurs if the convicted felon loses?
It actually isn’t unlawful or unprecedented for a billionaire CEO to make use of their cash and affect in an try to sway the election in favor of their most well-liked candidate, and but, Musk should discover himself in authorized bother over his political motion committee’s attainable violation of human trafficking legal guidelines, the attainable mendacity on his immigration paperwork and his buddy-buddy relationship with enemy dictator Vladimir Putin. That’s not even the entire listing, only a handful of probably the most rapid points that deserve investigating.
Nonetheless, we don’t know the way aggressively the Harris administration would go after Musk, particularly within the months instantly following her inauguration. In spite of everything, there’s an opportunity that post-election and post-inauguration right-wing violence will trigger greater than its justifiable share of distractions. They’re already burning poll bins, so there’s no motive to imagine they’ll take a Trump loss peacefully. No matter what any investigation concludes, although, the wheels of justice flip slowly, and he most likely gained’t face any precise penalties for some time, if he ever does.
You can also’t neglect about that entire two-tiered justice system we’ve that appears particularly geared towards conserving the wealthy out of jail. If his cozy little nighttime chats with Putin weren’t sufficient to forestall the Pentagon from utilizing SpaceX to launch a community of spy satellites, it’s onerous to have a lot religion that the Harris administration gained’t proceed her predecessor’s coverage of merely letting him get away with the whole lot.
Whether or not it’s for present or one thing he truly believes, Musk’s conduct on Twitter recently actually suggests he isn’t assured his standing because the richest individual on this planet will hold him secure. Along with all his different rubbish tweets, Musk can be spreading the concept Democrats plan to destroy him, and in his interview with TV dinner belief fund child Tucker Carlson, stated he’s fucked if Trump loses. Why he’s threatening me with a superb time, I don’t know, but it surely most likely has one thing to do with all of the ketamine.
If Musk does go down, although, that will probably be unhealthy information for each firm he runs however particularly Tesla because it’s publicly traded. Its worth has been utterly divorced from its merchandise and income for years now, and with Musk not on the helm, it’s onerous to think about buyers wouldn’t flee. Tesla is Elon, and Elon is Tesla, in spite of everything.
What’s far more attention-grabbing to think about is what is going to occur to Tesla if we assume the established order is generally right here to remain. In a state of affairs the place Trump loses, and Musk tries to return to being his pre-Twitter-takeover self, it’s nonetheless simple to see a variety of potential clients deciding they don’t wish to give their cash to somebody so unapologetically right-wing. I imply, he’s already telling folks he plans to crash the economic system when he guts the federal authorities like a personal fairness CEO who simply acquired a media firm from Univision. Common folks don’t have a tendency to love guys like that.
For just about another electrical automaker, a Harris win could be excellent news. She’s going to probably proceed to supply tax credit for EV purchases and needs to develop the EV trade within the U.S. She’ll spend money on clear power and can presumably proceed the carbon credit score program that advantages electrical automakers, together with Tesla. The bar isn’t excessive, however you may anticipate Harris to be probably the most pro-EV president in historical past. On paper, Tesla’s CEO must be all about that, particularly with its U.S. factories giving it a bonus over automakers that construct their EVs abroad.
The draw back for Tesla is that Harris’s insurance policies will assist the EV trade as a complete, not Tesla particularly. If different automakers’ EV gross sales enhance, that’s solely going to harm Tesla’s market share and can probably influence its gross sales, as nicely. What Tesla does have is its Supercharger community, which might nonetheless be a beneficial asset that generates income even when each Tesla manufacturing unit magically disappeared in a single day.
By the top of the second Harris administration, different networks might have caught up, however not less than within the close to future, you may’t overlook how essential the Supercharger community is as the corporate faces an uphill battle in opposition to competitors that solely will get more durable each time a brand new EV goes on sale. The truth that Tesla’s lineup is both historic or the Cybertruck actually doesn’t assist issues, both.
After all, Musk defenders will let you know automotive gross sales don’t matter as a result of Tesla is now an AI/robotics firm, but it surely’s additionally simple to see buyers getting spooked and attempting to place their cash someplace safer than Tesla as they modify their technique primarily based on the course they imagine Harris will take the nation. It’s additionally no secret that Tesla is a meme inventory and has been for a very long time. There could also be a couple of credulous rubes who stick round and actually imagine Tesla is about to “resolve autonomy,” however come late January, what number of of these will nonetheless be round?
If buyers get spooked, issues might in a short time go from unhealthy to worse for Musk and Tesla. SpaceX is effective by way of authorities contracts, but it surely isn’t a publicly traded firm he can use to fund his way of life. He wants Tesla to stay overvalued to maintain this entire factor going, and some large buyers exiting may very well be the falling domino that finally brings all of it down. If the inventory worth relies on vibes anyway, unhealthy vibes might simply snowball right into a state of affairs the place everybody’s determined to leap ship earlier than the worth falls even additional.
It’s additionally not like the rich don’t have legitimate causes to be apprehensive about an incoming Harris administration. She plans to boost taxes on the wealthy, regulate companies and proceed Biden’s coverage of going after rich tax cheats. (And miss me with that, “Woe is me, I can barely get by on $400,000 in San Francisco,” bullshit. Discover ways to price range like the remainder of us, Richy Wealthy.) The nation and the folks might be higher off underneath the Harris administration, however even earlier than she has the possibility to do any of that, it wouldn’t be stunning to see millionaires and billionaires act just like the sky is falling as a result of they may not be capable of afford to outfit a brand new non-public jet or bust unions and abuse employees with out penalties.
Consequently, it’s simple to think about a situation the place buyers wish to distance themselves from Musk and put their cash into safer investments which might be much less more likely to be topic to elevated regulation. And but, when you get to that time, it actually turns into onerous to guess what occurs subsequent. Possibly it’s attainable that the board kicks Elon to the curb, goes again to being a daily electrical automaker and provides up on pretending humanoid robots will truly be helpful. Given the make-up of the present board, although, that appears about as probably as Musk getting precise jail time.
So what do you assume? Will the inventory crash? Will or not it’s extra of a gradual burn? Will something occur to Musk? Does one other automaker swoop in and purchase Tesla? Will the corporate nonetheless exist in 4 years? Will Musk resolve autonomy and switch his robotaxis right into a multi-trillion-dollar goldmine? Just about any reply is simply as legitimate as another as a result of there’s no strategy to predict the long run. At this level, whether or not Harris or Trump wins might as nicely be a coin-flip, so if you happen to haven’t voted already, make double rattling certain you do this. The very last thing this nation wants is Elon able of energy in a second Trump administration.
